Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model The demographic transition model seeks to explain the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In developed countries, this transition began in the eighteenth century and continues today. Less developed countries began the transition later and are still in the midst of earlier stages of the model. CBR CDR The model is based on the change in crude  birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) over time. Each is expressed per thousand population. The CBR is determined by taking the number of births in one year in a country, dividing it by the countrys population, and multiplying the number by 1000. In 1998, the CBR in the United States is 14 per 1000 (14 births per 1000 people) while in Kenya it is 32 per 1000. The crude death rate is similarly determined. The number of deaths in one year is divided by the population and that figure is multiplied by 1000. This yields a CDR of 9 in the U.S. and 14 in Kenya. Stage I Prior to the Industrial Revolution, countries in Western Europe had high CBR and CDR. Births were high because more children meant more workers on the farm and with the high death rate, families needed more children to ensure the  survival of the family. Death rates were high due to disease and a lack of hygiene. The high CBR and CDR were somewhat stable and meant the  slow growth of a population. Occasional epidemics would dramatically increase the CDR for a few years (represented by the waves in Stage I of the model. Stage II In the mid-18th century, the death rate in Western European countries dropped due to improvement in sanitation and medicine. Out of tradition and practice, the birth rate remained high. This dropping death rate but the  stable birth rate at the beginning of Stage II contributed to skyrocketing population growth rates. Over time, children became an added expense and were less able to contribute to the wealth of a family. For this reason, along with advances in birth control, the CBR was reduced through the 20th century in developed countries. Populations still grew rapidly but this growth began to slow down. Many less developed countries are currently in Stage II of the model. For example, Kenyas high CBR of 32 per 1000 but low CDR of 14 per 1000 contribute to a high rate of growth (as in mid-Stage II). Stage III In the late 20th century, the CBR and CDR in developed countries both leveled off at a low rate. In some cases, the CBR is slightly higher than the CDR (as in the U.S. 14 versus 9) while in other countries the CBR is less than the CDR (as in Germany, 9 versus 11). (You can obtain current CBR and CDR data for all countries through the Census Bureaus International Data Base). Immigration from less developed countries now accounts for much of the population growth in developed countries that are in Stage III of the transition. Countries like China, South Korea, Singapore, and Cuba are rapidly approaching Stage III. The Model As with all models, the demographic transition model has its problems. The model does not provide guidelines as to how long it takes a country to get from Stage I to III. Western European countries took centuries through some rapidly developing countries like the Economic Tigers are transforming in mere decades. The model also does not predict that all countries will reach Stage III and have stable low birth and death rates. There are factors such as religion that keep some countries birth rate from dropping. Though this version of the demographic transition is composed of three stages, youll find similar models in texts as well as ones that include four or even five stages. The shape of the graph is consistent but the divisions in time are the only modification. An understanding of this model, in any of its forms, will help you to better understand population policies and changes in developed and less developed countries around the world.

Police Recruit Applicants Report Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Police Recruit Applicants Report - Term Paper Example All the interviewers gave a varied assessment of the integrity, emotional stability and professionalism. Interviewer A rated her as very good on this aspect, interviewer B concluded that she is good while interviewer C felt convinced that Summerton can only be rated as average on the three aspects. This demonstrates that the applicant can be correctly described as good in terms of professionalism, integrity and emotional stability. Summerton has a good knowledge of laws, regulations, policies and procedures according to the three interviewers. Furthermore, her analytical and reasoning skills are good as rated by two of the three assessors with the other rating her as very good. Summerton is good in community and team relationships except for one assessor who rated her as average. Given the opinion of the majority, Summerton can be described as being a good team player and having good community relationships. The interview also assessed one’s oral and written communication skil ls. On this aspect, Summerton was rated as good by two out of the three interviewers while the other rating her as average. Given the opinion of the interviewers, Summerton can be rightly described as having good communication skills. ... She can also be described as of average personality when it comes to being helpful, sympathetic towards others and cooperation. Despite the above admirable personality traits, Summerton has a low degree of sociability, talkativeness and assertiveness. The information provided by Summerton was authenticated by the referees and employers checks as true. Moreover, she was cleared by the ethical standards division. The second applicant for police recruitment post was a male named Thomas Garrigan. He is aged 27 and has previously worked as a retail assistant for two years and as a nurse for a year. Upon completing his high school, Thomas pursed a degree in Science and a Bachelor in Nursing. He is rated as good in terms of integrity, emotional stability and professionalism. He is also very good in terms of knowledge of laws, regulations, policies and procedures. He has good analytical and reasoning skills according to the majority of interviewers. His written and oral communication skill i s also good and is a good team player. Thomas is physical fit and had high achievement on the beep test. When it comes to major personality traits; Thomas is highly disciplined, result oriented and organized. Thomas is averagely a helpful person, sympathetic to others and cooperative. He also has an average ability of controlling his impulse, anxiety and emotional stability. Furthermore, he can be described as having average socialization skills. He is also averagely an assertive and talkative person. Thomas is not curious to learn new ideas and try new things. He has been influenced by his father who is presently a Senior Sergeant in charge of Morryvale Station. Thomas is a sincere gentleman with all the

The Rise of Capitalism Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

The Rise of Capitalism - Essay Example Smith’s theory that propagated dependence of individualism that oozed out of the nation at this time period. America’s obsession with Industrial began with Slater’s mills in which textiles became the primary market to produce. Although it may seem a new age, most workers were orphans or children who owed debt to the nation. The drive of capitalism for this country relied on many factors that included slavery, turned raw goods into products, factories, and the ability to produce such a drastic workforce. Jefferson understood and acknowledged this problem. He feared that the America could not be properly industrialized due to the fact that it would not attract workers. Hence, the need to build factories around villages became critical components towards the move to industrialize America. Moreover, the ability of the American leaders to explore the â€Å"wild west† catapulted the nation to expand and dramatically changed from an urban to a rural area. One of the most significant factors that contributed to the development expansion of the United States was the fertile land that was available in the South. The large plantations in the south gave the rise to slave labor was the fertile farmland in the Midwest enabled United States to accomplish several things. First of all, the invention of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin initiated the rise to slave labor in the rich land that extended beyond from Carolina to Texas, which expanded the United States border. The fertile land gave boosted the American economy, which contributed to development of United States. The south had to dramatically shift their economy to tobacco and cotton to agriculture. In the north, corn supply was enhanced along with the focus on producing textiles. Cities such as New York and Chicago became the top commerce cities that built its economic empire due to the industrial revolution. The creation of Erie Canal became the hallmark of water commerce that enabled America to lower shipping costs

IP1 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

IP1 - Essay Example Anderson (n.d.) defines scope of practice as the actions, activities, and procedures permitted by law for a specific profession. Practitioners’ organizations are the ones that usually recommend the contents of the scope of practice. In particular, the scope of practice of certain practitioners in a hospital may also vary from those in another hospital in consideration of the scope of practice established in general. In the field of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) determines the scope of practice of obstetricians-gynecologists. In its Web site, ACOG (2005) defines the scope of practice of ob-gyn, thus: a discipline dedicated to the broad, integrated medical and surgical care of women's health throughout their lifespan. The combined discipline of obstetrics and gynecology requires extensive study and understanding of reproductive physiology, including the physiologic, social, cultural, environmental and genetic factors t hat influence disease in women. This study and understanding of the reproductive physiology of women gives obstetricians and gynecologists a unique perspective in addressing gender-specific health care issues. Preventive counseling and health education are essential and integral parts of the practice of obstetricians and gynecologists as they advance the individual and community-based health of women of all ages.

The Barnum effect

The Barnum effect Abstract The Barnum effect is a theory that originated from psychologist Paul Meehl. The Barnum effect represents a type of subjective validation in which an individual finds personal meaning in a statement that could apply to many people (Cardwell, M. and Flanagan, C. 2012). In 1949, Forer went on to study this effect by giving his students an extract form an astrology column, finding that many students endorsed the extract and felt it was trailered to them. I therefore propose an experiment which will explore whether their are different responses in genders to a standardised personality description. The subjects participating are all college students currently studying history. The hypothesis therefore being, women will give a significantly higher accuracy rating than men on the standardised personality description. The null hypothesis is therefore, there will not be a significant difference between men and woman then asked to rate a standard personality description. The Mann-Whitney test will be used to help interpret the findings. Despite there being a minimal difference in the scores with females scoring higher than males, the experiment showed that the results where not significant thus the null hypothesis is supported. Introduction The Barnum effect is a theory that originated from psychologist Paul Meehl, in reference to to P. T. Barnum, an American showman with a reputation as a master manipulator. The Barnum effect represents a type of subjective validation in which a person finds personal meaning in a statement that could apply to many people (Cardwell, M. and Flanagan, C. 2012). If a subject is given statements that appear to have been specifically prepared for them, they often will validate its accuracy, thus giving validly to the means used to create the statement. In 1949 Bertram, R. Forer wanted to study this effect and devised a study using his students to give some incite into the appeal of pseudo-science. Students completed a personality test that he has simply copied out of a newspaper column, and that the results would produce a unique personality analysis. After this the students were asked to rate the analysis form 0 (poor) to 5 (excellent) in terms of how accurate they felt it reflected their own personality. Most of the students endorsed this statement with the average score being 4.26 (Cardwell, M. and Flanagan, C. 2012).This gives us an insight into the popularity of pseudo-science. Many people put great faith in horoscopes and personality tests the truth is that predictions like these only work because we like to hear information about our selves. Another study into gullibility carried out by N.D. Sunberg (1955) asked students to complete a standardised test used by psychologists to evaluate an individuals personality. They were then given results, either written by two experienced psychologists, or a false one. When asked which result was more accurate, 50% of participants identified the fake results as more accurate (Cline, A. 2014). This experiment identified the fallacy of personal validation, whereby an individual cannot be relied on to validate their own character or personality. The outcome of the Barnum effect can however be effected by variables such as education and gender. A study into pseudo-science and peoples beliefs was conducted by Keeports and Morier (1994). Their study looked at a group of students who were studying science and pseudo-science presenting them with a questionnaire at the beginning of the course about their beliefs. After the course the same questionnaire was given to the students and found a significant reduction in their belief of the paranormal. This shows how education can clearly have an impact on peoples belief in the paranormal. It has been generally accepted that there are no gender differences in the Barnum effect phenomenon. However, research carried out by Piper-Terry and Downey (1998) found that under certain conditions, gender could effect the results (Layne, C. 1998). They had their friends administer a personality test to psychology students then preceded to claim that they had interpreted their response based on what they were learning in class. The students rated the interpretations highly in line with the Barnum effect, however women rated these more accurately than men did. Piper-Terry and Downey concluded that woman gave higher accuracy ratings because they wanted to help out their friends whereas men where less inclined to help. Another interpretation could be that women are more open and therefore expect their friends interpretations to be more accurate. Furthermore, an argument can be made for women to be more susceptible of the Barnum effect. Studies have found 65% of church congregations in the UK are made up of women (Thackray, J. 2013). An argument that is used to explain this could be that women are seen to be more emotional, which could lead to greater spiritual openness, and a willingness to accept faith without the need of evidence. However, some simply state that because of the ageing population of the church the number of women in the congregation will increase simply because of their longer life spans. It is therefore the aim of this experiment to compare the susceptibility of men and woman. When asked by a neutral party to rate a standardised personalty description according to its accuracy. The hypothesis therefore being women will give a significantly higher accuracy rating than men on the standardised personality description The null hypothesis is therefore, there will not be a significant difference between men and woman then asked to rate a standard personality description. Method Design This experiment will be a laboratory experiment carried out in a class room with as much done as possible to help limit extraneous variables that may effect the result such as noise distractions or demand characteristics. The experiment will use an independent measure and involve a group of individuals that will conduct the experiment once. The independent variable will be the participants gender The dependant variable will be the participants response to the standardized personalty description. Participants The participants that will be used in this experiment will be students, currently studying history, aged between 19 and 31. The sample will consist of 12 females and 8 males and they will not be known the experamtor. Apparatus: 1 set of standardised instructions. 20 personalty assessment question sheets 20 standardised personalty descriptions. 1 classroom Procedure. The participants were first asked if they would consent to take part in an experiment. carried out by a fictional university into a new type of personality assessment that could give accurate information about an individuals personality. The participants then handed out a standardised questionnaire and instructed to answer each question on the paper. Once all the questionnaires were collected I told them I would return in one week with a personality description for each individual. On my return I handed out the standardised personality description informing them that it was personal and should not be shared with anyone else. I then asked them to rate the description out of 10 with 1 been not at all relevant and 10 been extremely relevant. Once these had been collected in I debriefed the participants and explained the deception. Results Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics Mann-Whitney U test: Discussion The results of the study showed through analysis that using the Mann-Whitney U test it was found that the null hypothesis is shown to be correct. The experimental hypothesis that females will give a significantly higher score than males to a standardised personality description is rejected. However, by looking at the mean results from the two groups we can see that females did give a marginally higher score on the personality description. Although the null hypothesis was supported the Barnum effect was clearly evident in this experiment. A large majority of the participants showed a score of 5 or higher with only one scoring below, as such we can say that the deception needed to conduct the experiment was a success. Moreover, among female participants two gave a score as high as 10 indicating how firmly they believed that the personality description had been trailered to them as individuals. This experiment therefore mirrors the results of the study carried out by Bertram, R. Foster, as the group of students he used also gave relatively high scores to a, after being told it was tailored to the individual. Furthermore, comparisons can be drawn from the experiment carried out by N.D. Sunberg (1995) in which standardised tests, real and fake, were used to evaluate personalities. Both experiments can reinforce the fallacy of personal validation, clearly showing that people cannot be trusted to validate their own personali ty. There are several reasons why the hypotheses was not significantly supported. One of these could have been that the participants used share many similarities, such as studying the same subject which could be an indicator of a certain personality type. Furthermore, the fact that they are students could indicate a certain level of intelligence. Both of these factors would make it hard to generalise the study to the rest of the population and as such lower the ecological validity of the experiment. This problem is shared by others who have been researching the subject including that of Piper-Terry and Downey (1994), who used psychology students for there experiments. One of the factors that could have affected the results is that their were more female than male participants. This could have effected the statistical conclusion that was drawn. The experiment was carried out under laboratory conditions in a college classroom which could have effected the outcome of the experiment. Although this setting allowed for many extraneous variables to be controlled, such as the tiredness of a student or their willingness to give the study their full attention could not be. Furthermore, the placement of the participants sitting around tables instead of individually could have allowed them to see each others question answers or personality description, possibly leading them to alter their answers. Both of these criticisms could lower the internal validity of the experiment. A major strength of this study is the standardised set of instructions that were given to each student. By doing this we can ensure that each of the participants fully understand what they are expected to do as well as leading to the ability to easy recreate the experiment. Furthermore, standardised instructions leads to all the participants being treated the same and so lowers the risk of experimenter effects. With regard to ethics, one of the main concerns was the creation a deception in order for the experiment to be effective. The British Psychology Society state in their guidelines that intentional deception should be avoided whenever possible (Hayes, N. 1993). As a deception was needed steps were taken to ensure participants were deceived as little as possible and that the true nature of the experiment was clearly communicated to them after it was complete . This was done by fully debriefing the participants after the study had been concluded. This involved fully informing them about the nature of the research and reassuring them about their performance within the study, as well as answering any questions that they might have about the experiment. (Lawton, J et al, 2011). Appendix 1: Personal statement While disciplined on the outside you tend to be slightly insecure at times and you have need for other people to like and admire you. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety however you become unhappy when you feel hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. Over the years you have learnt that us wise not to be to frank while revealing yourself to others and that it is best to hold onto your views until you feel that the time is right to express them. At times your outgoing, pleasant to talk to and sociable. However, there are time when when faced with a new situation that you feel slightly cautious and reserved. While some of your future plans may seem out of reach you nevertheless are willing to put in the work to try and make them a reality. Please score the accuracy of this personal statement 0 = very poor – 1 = extremely accurate Appendix 2: Questionnaire Instructions In the table below, for each statement 1-50 mark how much you agree with on the scale 1-10, where 1=disagree, 10 extremely accurate. References Cardwell, M. and Flanagan, C. (2012) Psychology AS: the complete companion: student book: for AQA A. 3rd edn. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Christopher Layne (1998) GENDER AND THE BARNUM EFFECT: A REINTERPRETATION OF PIPER-TERRY AND DOWNEYS RESULTS. Psychological Reports: Volume 83 Cline, A. (2014) Flaws in Reasoning and Arguments: Barnum Effect Gullibility Available at URL http://atheism.about.com/od/logicalflawsinreasoning/a/barnum.htm (Accessed on 09 December 2014) Hayes, N. (1993) A first course in psycholog. London: Harrap LAWTON, J., GROSS, R. and ROLLS, G. (2011) Psychology A2 for AQA (A). Abingdon: Hodder Education. Thackray, J. (2013) Why do more women flock to the Church? Available at URL http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10035155/Why-do-more-women-flock-to-the-Church.html (Accessed on 10 December 2014)

Destruction through Imagery and Theme in The English Patient Essay

Destruction through Imagery and Theme in The English Patient The imagery in Michael Ondaatje's novel The English Patient serves to illustrate the theme of destruction in this novel. The setting of the novel as well as the characters themselves present to the reader a vivid picture of demolition. Critics also find that Ondaatje's imagery is a vital element in the presentation of this theme. The English Patient is set at the end of World War II in a war-ravaged Italian village. Ondaatje gives vivid descriptions of the damage the village sustained due to the war: As the hill town began to be torn apart like a battle ship at sea, by fire shells, the troops moved from the barrack tents in the orchard into the now crowded bedrooms of the old nunnery. Sections of the chapel were blown up. Parts of the top storey of the villa crumbled under the explosions. (12) Ondaatje's detailed and memorable description completes his picture of the county side. "Dead cattle. Horses shot dead, half eaten. People hanging upside down from bridges" (Ondaatje 19). This elaborate a...

Robert Frost is an American poet – What do you find specifically American in his poems and what do you find is universal?

Robert Frost wrote many poems about everyday rural life that are closely linked with human emotions. Most of his poems contain hidden meanings that are not clear at first sight. Firstly, I will talk of the specifically American aspects in Frost's poems. One thing sometimes found in Frosts poems that is American is the place in which the poem is set. The locations of Frosts poems often give a feeling of wide stretching forests and fields that go on for miles that don't exist in many other countries. â€Å"I let my neighbor know beyond the hill; And on a day we meet to walk the line† This phrase, from â€Å"Mending Wall†, immediately suggests vast amounts of space as the speaker talks of, â€Å"beyond the hill†, having a hill on ones land indicates that it must be spacious, and, â€Å"we meet to walk the line†, this ‘walking the line' gives an image of a boundary between two sizeable pieces of territory. â€Å"After Apple-Picking† also gives a sense of immense space with its' title and subject matter. The title tells the reader of the event that is occurring in Frost's orchard. Having an orchard on ones property implies a huge amount of land is owned. â€Å"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood†, â€Å"And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth† These phrases from â€Å"The Road Not Taken† also indicate a vast space. The second of the two phrases especially does this as the path travels so far in to the enormous wood that the speaker can not see its' end, he can only see where it bends further on. â€Å"Some boy too far away from town to learn baseball† This line from â€Å"Birches† also emphasizes the space in America. The fact that a boy I too far from the nearest town to learn how to play baseball shows that there is a lot of room between heavily populated areas. Robert Frost uses the landscape's size to indicate a feeling of isolation and loneliness. Another American aspect of Frost's poems are certain word spellings and place names. â€Å"neighbor† – Mending Wall â€Å"color† – Gathering Leaves â€Å"Vermont† – Out, Out! â€Å"woodchuck† – After Apple Picking â€Å"Axe-helve† – Axe-helve The first two phrases are spelling differences from United Kingdom English. â€Å"Vermont† is a state in America. â€Å"woodchuck† is an animal native to America and an â€Å"Axe-helve† is the American way of saying axe handle. However, I believe that these parts of the poems are superficial and aren't really important to the poem's content and idea. American traditions are also sometimes mentioned in Frost's poems. â€Å"I like to think some boy's been swinging on them† This line, from â€Å"Birches†, talks of the tradition of swinging from branches of birch trees. The speaker tells the reader of how young boys, who are far away from a town and other young children, like to swing from branches. â€Å"Birches† also mentions another American tradition, â€Å"Some boy too far away from town to learn baseball† Lastly, I will discuss the distinctive American climate that is portrayed in Frost's poems. â€Å"We sit indoors and talk of the cold outside. And every gust that gathers strength and heaves Is a threat to the house.† It is not often that you see climates like this outside of America, Especially not in the United Kingdom. â€Å"He will not see me stopping here To watch his woods fill up with snow.† This line is from â€Å"Stopping By Woods On A Snowy Evening. This is also very much an American climate. Snow is quite rare in most other countries including the United Kingdom, particularly to the extent shown in this poem. I will now talk of the Universal aspects in Frost's poems. One aspect of Frost's poems that is not centred on America is human emotions and philosophies. For example, at first sight â€Å"Mending Wall† seems to be a poem about two men building a wall between their two properties, however, the poem has a hidden meaning. The poem is really focused on the human barriers that people put up between themselves and others and the traditional views that the speaker disagrees with. This is a main characteristic of Frost's poems and is featured in most of his work. There is also a hidden meaning in â€Å"Stopping By Woods On a Snowy Evening†. On the surface the poem talks about a man who stops by some woods to watch them fill up with snow, however, its hidden meaning is about a man who seems somewhat weary of life and he wants to take a â€Å"time out†, but he can not do this as he has other responsibilities to adhere to. Another example of this is the poem â€Å"The Road Not Taken†. This poem talks of a man trying to decide which road to talk in a wood. Its hidden meaning is about the choices we have to make and how we can come to wonder if we have chosen the right path. Also other aspects of Frost's poems that are universal are his verse structures and some of his rhyme patterns. However, also some of his rhyme patterns were unique and exclusive to him. An example of this can be taken from â€Å"Stopping By Woods On A Snowy Evening†. He uses the same rhyme sound for each line in the four-lined verse, except for line three when he uses a new rhyme sound. He then carries this rhyme down to the next verse as the common rhyme sound and so on. When he reaches the last verse the rhyme sounds are all the same. This is a very clever technique as it makes the poem flow well and allows the reader to see the interconnecting superficial theme and hidden meaning. Also by keeping the rhyme sound constant in the last verse he makes his final point stand out and rounds off the poem. In conclusion, I would say that on the whole Frost's poems are universal and have universal appeal as they deal mainly with human emotions. The aspects of his poems that are specific to America are superficial and have no real relation to the poems themes and ideas.